Ms. Dopp has also analyzed data from the 2000 presidential election, but we decided to go back and analyze the 1996 presidential election data to see if the optical scan counties showed the same Republican voting trends back then. We obtained the 2004 election data from Ms. Dopp's page, and obtained the 1996 election results from the Florida Department of State's Division of Elections Election Results page (data obtained ~Nov. 6, 2004). We did not obtain registration data for 1996.
In our analysis we calculated the fraction of total votes cast for the Democratic and Republican candidates in both 1996 and 2004 within every Florida county. We then compared the 2004 to 1996 voting percentages for each party and each county (subtracting the 1996 vote percentages from the 2004 vote percentages) to generate a percent change in votes for each party's candidate. Averaging across all counties, Kerry got a 3.4% smaller fraction of the vote in 2004 than Clinton in 1996, while Bush got a 14.9% larger fraction of the vote in 2004 than Dole in 1996, meaning that there was a total "shift" of 18.3% to the Republican candidate. A possible confounding factor was the presence in 1996 of Perot as a significant third party candidate (receiving 9.1% of the Florida vote).
As Ms. Kopp did, we also grouped the data by the style of voting machines used in 2004. We found that counties that used optical scan balloting in 2004 had an average Republican "shift" of 20.4%, while counties that used electronic voting in 2004 had an average Republican "shift" of 11.3%.
Here are a few selected examples:
- Dixie County voted 45.6% Democratic and 36.8% Republican in 1996, compared to 30.4% Democratic and 68.8% Republican in 2004, for a total "shift" of 47.2%.
- Holmes County voted 34.0% Democratic and 47.8% Republican in 1996, compared to 21.8% Democratic and 77.2% Republican in 2004, for a total "shift" of 41.6%.
- Putnam County voted 47.8% Democratic and 38.9% Republican in 1996, compared to 40.1% Democratic and 59.1% Republican in 2004, for a total "shift" of 27.9%.
Tables:
I have included the summary data below, and have posted the full 1996 data table separately here.
Table 1: Percent of total votes cast in the 1996 and 2004 presidential elections for the Democratic candidate (Clinton in 1996, Kerry in 2004) or Republican candidate (Dole in 1996, Bush in 2004). The shift in voting preferences between the two elections is tabulated for each party separately, which is then used to calcluate the overall "shift" towards the Republican candidate from 1996 to 2004. Voting method data are from the 2004 election; "e" is electronic voting, and "op" is optical scan.
| County | Dem 96 | Rep 96 | Dem 04 | Rep 04 | Voting method in 2004 | Dem 04 minus Dem 96 | Rep 04 minus Rep 96 | Republican "shift" from '96 to '04 |
| Broward | 63.5% | 28.3% | 64.3% | 34.5% | e | 0.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% |
| Charlotte | 43.0% | 44.2% | 42.9% | 55.7% | e | -0.1% | 11.5% | 11.6% |
| Collier | 32.0% | 58.7% | 34.1% | 65.0% | e | 2.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Dade | 57.3% | 37.9% | 53.7% | 45.8% | e | -3.6% | 7.9% | 11.5% |
| Hillsborough | 46.8% | 44.3% | 46.3% | 53.0% | e | -0.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% |
| Indian River | 37.2% | 51.7% | 39.0% | 60.2% | e | 1.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% |
| Lake | 40.3% | 47.5% | 38.9% | 60.0% | e | -1.3% | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Lee | 39.6% | 48.7% | 39.8% | 59.0% | e | 0.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% |
| Martin | 38.2% | 52.2% | 41.7% | 57.1% | e | 3.5% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Nassau | 34.4% | 57.3% | 26.2% | 72.7% | e | -8.2% | 15.3% | 23.5% |
| Palm Beach | 58.1% | 33.7% | 60.8% | 38.5% | e | 2.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Pasco | 49.8% | 36.2% | 44.4% | 54.1% | e | -5.4% | 17.8% | 23.3% |
| Pinellas | 49.1% | 40.4% | 49.5% | 49.6% | e | 0.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Sarasota | 42.7% | 46.5% | 45.2% | 53.5% | e | 2.5% | 7.1% | 4.6% |
| Sumter | 45.6% | 38.7% | 36.4% | 62.2% | e | -9.2% | 23.5% | 32.6% |
| Average for electronic voting counties | -1.0% | 10.3% | 11.3% | |||||
| Alachua | 53.9% | 34.0% | 56.2% | 42.9% | op | 2.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% |
| Baker | 34.3% | 55.5% | 21.9% | 77.7% | op | -12.4% | 22.2% | 34.6% |
| Bay | 33.0% | 54.9% | 28.1% | 71.2% | op | -4.9% | 16.3% | 21.2% |
| Bradford | 40.7% | 49.0% | 29.9% | 69.6% | op | -10.8% | 20.6% | 31.4% |
| Brevard | 41.2% | 45.1% | 41.6% | 57.7% | op | 0.3% | 12.6% | 12.2% |
| Calhoun | 43.1% | 41.3% | 35.5% | 63.4% | op | -7.6% | 22.1% | 29.8% |
| Citrus | 44.5% | 40.6% | 42.1% | 56.9% | op | -2.3% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| Clay | 28.2% | 64.5% | 23.3% | 76.2% | op | -4.9% | 11.7% | 16.6% |
| Columbia | 41.0% | 46.5% | 32.1% | 67.1% | op | -8.8% | 20.6% | 29.4% |
| Desoto | 43.0% | 43.7% | 41.2% | 58.0% | op | -1.8% | 14.3% | 16.1% |
| Dixie | 45.6% | 36.8% | 30.4% | 68.8% | op | -15.2% | 32.0% | 47.2% |
| Duval | 44.2% | 50.0% | 41.7% | 57.7% | op | -2.5% | 7.8% | 10.3% |
| Escambia | 35.1% | 56.5% | 33.7% | 65.3% | op | -1.3% | 8.8% | 10.1% |
| Flagler | 47.7% | 41.0% | 48.3% | 51.0% | op | 0.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% |
| Franklin | 45.9% | 34.2% | 40.5% | 58.5% | op | -5.4% | 24.3% | 29.7% |
| Gadsden | 66.3% | 26.9% | 69.7% | 29.8% | op | 3.5% | 2.9% | -0.6% |
| Gilchrist | 41.4% | 40.4% | 28.8% | 70.4% | op | -12.6% | 29.9% | 42.6% |
| Glades | 44.6% | 39.7% | 41.8% | 57.7% | op | -2.8% | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| Gulf | 41.4% | 40.5% | 33.0% | 66.1% | op | -8.4% | 25.6% | 34.0% |
| Hamilton | 47.2% | 41.4% | 44.5% | 55.0% | op | -2.8% | 13.6% | 16.4% |
| Hardee | 39.0% | 47.2% | 29.6% | 69.7% | op | -9.3% | 22.5% | 31.8% |
| Hendry | 43.6% | 43.3% | 40.5% | 58.9% | op | -3.1% | 15.6% | 18.7% |
| Hernando | 49.1% | 38.0% | 46.2% | 52.9% | op | -3.0% | 15.0% | 17.9% |
| Highlands | 42.3% | 46.3% | 38.5% | 60.8% | op | -3.7% | 14.5% | 18.2% |
| Holmes | 34.0% | 47.8% | 21.8% | 77.2% | op | -12.2% | 29.5% | 41.6% |
| Jackson | 43.0% | 46.3% | 38.1% | 61.2% | op | -4.9% | 14.9% | 19.7% |
| Jefferson | 52.9% | 38.5% | 55.3% | 44.1% | op | 2.4% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| Lafayette | 35.7% | 50.2% | 25.4% | 74.0% | op | -10.3% | 23.8% | 34.1% |
| Leon | 54.6% | 37.0% | 62.0% | 37.3% | op | 7.4% | 0.3% | -7.1% |
| Levy | 44.6% | 38.9% | 36.5% | 62.5% | op | -8.2% | 23.7% | 31.8% |
| Liberty | 40.1% | 42.2% | 35.4% | 63.8% | op | -4.7% | 21.6% | 26.3% |
| Madison | 50.0% | 39.3% | 48.7% | 50.5% | op | -1.2% | 11.2% | 12.4% |
| Manatee | 43.2% | 45.5% | 42.7% | 56.6% | op | -0.6% | 11.1% | 11.7% |
| Marion | 41.1% | 45.9% | 41.0% | 58.2% | op | -0.1% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| Monroe | 46.9% | 37.0% | 49.7% | 49.2% | op | 2.8% | 12.2% | 9.4% |
| Okaloosa | 26.1% | 64.5% | 21.6% | 77.6% | op | -4.5% | 13.1% | 17.6% |
| Okeechobee | 48.6% | 34.4% | 42.3% | 57.2% | op | -6.3% | 22.9% | 29.2% |
| Orange | 45.7% | 45.9% | 49.8% | 49.6% | op | 4.1% | 3.8% | -0.4% |
| Osceola | 47.0% | 39.4% | 47.8% | 51.7% | op | 0.7% | 12.3% | 11.6% |
| Polk | 44.4% | 45.3% | 40.8% | 58.6% | op | -3.7% | 13.4% | 17.0% |
| Putnam | 47.8% | 38.9% | 40.1% | 59.1% | op | -7.7% | 20.2% | 27.9% |
| Santa Rosa | 25.8% | 62.0% | 21.8% | 77.3% | op | -4.0% | 15.3% | 19.4% |
| Seminole | 39.2% | 52.0% | 41.3% | 58.1% | op | 2.1% | 6.1% | 3.9% |
| St. Johns | 34.4% | 56.3% | 30.6% | 68.6% | op | -3.8% | 12.3% | 16.2% |
| St. Lucie | 48.9% | 39.1% | 52.4% | 47.0% | op | 3.4% | 7.9% | 4.5% |
| Suwannee | 36.9% | 47.3% | 28.6% | 70.6% | op | -8.3% | 23.3% | 31.6% |
| Taylor | 44.8% | 39.9% | 35.5% | 63.7% | op | -9.3% | 23.8% | 33.1% |
| Union | 40.1% | 47.3% | 26.8% | 72.6% | op | -13.3% | 25.4% | 38.7% |
| Volusia | 49.3% | 39.4% | 51.3% | 48.1% | op | 2.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% |
| Wakulla | 42.6% | 40.9% | 41.6% | 57.6% | op | -1.0% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| Walton | 34.4% | 49.7% | 25.9% | 73.2% | op | -8.5% | 23.5% | 32.0% |
| Washington | 38.1% | 44.8% | 28.1% | 71.1% | op | -10.0% | 26.3% | 36.3% |
| Average for optical scan counties | -4.1% | 16.3% | 20.4% | |||||
| Averages for all counties: | -3.4% | 14.9% | 18.3% |
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